In simple terms, online bookmakers make a profit by pricing their online betting markets so that the odds offered do not fairly represent the actual statistical probability of the event concerned. The simplest analogy is betting on a coin toss, which statistically represents a 50/50 chance on either outcome – heads or tails. As a probability this is expressed as 0.5 or decimal odds of 2.00 on both sides (without margin); so when betting with a friend, you’d bet €10 to win €10 on either heads or tails.

To make a profit bookmakers however, would offer heads or tails at odds below 2.00. The industry average margin is 1.91, where you would bet €11 to win €10 on what is essentially an equal chance. If one player bets €11 to win €10 on heads and another punter bets €11 to win €10 on tails, the bookie takes in €22 in bets but regardless of whether the outcome is heads or tails, he will pay out €21 (€10 in winnings and €11 stake). The difference between the odds they offer, and the true price represents the bookies’ margin, in this case a €1 profit or 4.5% on turnover - giving the bettor a 95.5% payout. At Pinnacle Sports two-way markets, such as a coin-toss, would be priced at 1.962, which is a margin of just under 102%, and a player payout of 98%, with no commission. Use our betting calculator to see for yourself, looking at our key offerings such the best value World Cup odds.

Given the margins at traditional bookmakers, you would have to win close to c. 53% of two-way bets to break even with, but the low margin model at Pinnacle Sports means you would only need to win c. 51% of your picks to break even. Over a sporting season this difference becomes significant, and is recognised by professional gamblers for whom Pinnacle Sports is the default choice.

Soccer Markets - 97% Payout on 1×2’s

Pinnacle Sports extends this low margin approach to every market it offers, so for example 1×2 soccer markets - such as the five major European soccer leagues - are priced to 103%, which is a 97% payout compared to an industry standard of 92%. As a result we are consistently best priced against all competition, giving you the best chance to win more better on three-way soccer.

Why is a Bookmaker telling me this?

Pinnacle Sports’s philosophy is that if we can improve the sophistication of players everywhere, more bettors will recognize the benefit of our unique pricing model, which offers up to 60% better odds. Pinnacle Sports benefits from educating its players, as it is sharp bettors who firm up our early prices on all markets offered, that allows us to provide the highest limits and allowing Pinnacle Sports to offer the most competitive online sports betting odds around.

Favre’s Retirement Tango Has Packers Looking to Stop the Music

NFL betting futures markets were unchanged after Brett Favre appeared at Lambeau Field on Saturday. The quasi-retired Favre wasn’t there to visit with the Packers’ brass, he was in Green Bay for the Packers’ Hall of Fame ceremony, where he presented former center Larry Winters for induction.

Unlike Favre’s exclusive interview last week with Fox News, not a word was mentioned about Favre’s current situation with his former club. Favre continues to have no immediate plans for reinstatement, a move that would force the Packers to put Favre on the roster – or release him to free agency.

SIGN-UP NOW FOR 60% BETTER NFL SIDES & TOTALS

Both situations are quickly becoming a personnel and public-relations nightmare for the Pack, if things aren’t at that point already. If Green Bay brings Favre back, he’s pegged to be the backup quarterback behind Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers release him, he could sign with an NFC rival like the Minnesota Vikings, who the Packers contend have already tampered with Favre.

Where does all this leave NFL futures bettors? Pretty much right where they were before the Favre drama started as rumor back in June. Pinnacle oddsmakers continue to list the Packers at +1000, 10.000* to win the NFC outright, which puts Green Bay sixth on the NFC odds list along with the Seattle Seahawks.

Without Favre around, sportsbooks figure the Packers (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS last season) will take a step back. Considering the current chalk, Green Bay will be lucky to make the playoffs with Rodgers at the helm.

While 13 wins might be out of the question, bettors should remember that Green Bay’s return to the top tier of the NFC was one part Favre to two parts improvement elsewhere on the roster. Once you sift through the smokescreen that Favre’s change of heart has created, you realize that Green Bay is still a very talented football team. Talented enough with Rodgers under center to be a sharp futures play at +1000? Probably.

The sooner Favre and the Packers come to some sort of agreement about what’s going to happen next, the sooner bettors can decide if Green Bay has value at that number.

*All odds subject to change

About PinnacleSports.com

At PinnacleSports.com our underlying philosophy is to educate players and our key principle is simple - always get the best price. PinnacleSports.com was the first online sports book to introduce reduced margin betting, using a pricing model that gives players up to 60% better odds than other bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online.

Find the smarter way to bet at PinnacleSports.com

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Hobbes

One look at last season’s English Premier League table will tell you that home teams scored more goals than visiting teams (552 v 349). In fact, ever since the English Football Association formed the first ever football league in 1888, it has always been that way. QED – home teams enjoy a natural advantage over away teams.

This might be stating the obvious, but many bettors fail to understand the importance of Home Field Advantage (HFA). At PinnacleSports.com we use HFA as the basis for much of our odds setting on football. The key to remember is that when a bookmaker sets a line, they are not necessarily trying to predict who will win the game, but rather find the point where they can generate balanced action. The challenge that bettors face is to be more accurate than the bookmaker in estimating the strength of HFA and play to win.

In American Football, there is a 3 point standard value for HFA, based on historical data on home points scored versus away points scored. This figure naturally masks deviations based on team and seasonality, so in pricing future games, odds makers will use the standard 3-point HFA as a guide, but adjust it for game specific factors.

The NFL lends itself easily to HFA measurements because given the ‘closed’ status of the league (absence of relegation) and draft system, there is a fairly level playing field. Such notions do not apply to English football, so despite over a century of raw data, you can be forgiven for not knowing the standard HFA for the English top flight, as no accepted figure exists. This presents opportunities for astute players.

The main reason for this is the level of polarisation that the open league system (based on promotion & relegation) has created. This is particularly important since the start of the Premier League in 1992, when the financial rewards of success have dramatically increased the gap between the haves and have nots.

The Premier League is currently contested by twenty clubs but there have been a total of forty clubs that have played in the top flight since its inception in 1992. However, only seven teams have contested all 15 seasons. Looking at the HFA figures for those sides should provide meaningfully consistent data.

The stats are freely available, and by copying the required data into an Excel spreadsheet, it’s a fairly simple task to arrive at a basic figure for HFA using the following calculation:

HFA = (Home Goals For – Home Goals Against)
Home Games Played

For example, in the 2006/07 season, Manchester United’s HFA would calculate as follows; 46 (goals for) minus 12 (goals against) for a goal difference of 34 divided by 19 games played at Old Trafford = 34/19 = 1.79

The table below gives the HFA advantage for the seven ever-present Premier League teams:

*Taken as of September 2nd, 2007. Bettors should update thereafter.

The theory behind HFA is to find value for example by either backing the home team when the Asian handicap is less than their HFA, or betting the visiting team when the Asian handicap exceeds the HFA.

Dedicated players may seek to find an even greater edge by refining their calculations to see what influence any number of factors might have on HFA for a particular team, division or domestic league. They might apply a filter so that only home games during a specific period are considered such as over the festive season, or against teams with a higher/lower league position, or teams newly promoted to the Premiership etc. etc. The possibilities are endless.

It is with these various refinements in subjective areas that astute players stay one step ahead of the bookmaker to reap maximum returns. Additional known influences to consider include:

Referees & Home Crowds

Harvard research assistant, Ryan Boyko studied 5,000 Premiership games from 1992 to 2006, to discern any officiating bias and the influence of home crowds. The data suggested that for every additional 10,000 people attending, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals. Additionally, his study proved what many football fans already suspect, that home teams are likely to receive more penalties, but crucially, this is more likely with inexperienced referees. So building referee profiles can clearly be a very telling refinement for HFA figures.

Seasonality & Games of Special Significance

HFA is anecdotally shown to increase for important games, including local Derbies, which logically attract high attendances and increased fervour. Look for anything that might raise the level of intensity such as emotive local stories, important club anniversaries or memorials for players/managers/significant events.

Breaking News & Injuries

Paying attention to team news is critically important. This process should continue right up until kick-off, with a surprising number of players injured during warm-up.

Recent Form

Confidence breeds success, so it is advisable to build in a value for recent form, though it is open for debate as to what constitutes a significant winning or losing run.

New Stadiums

A degree of home field advantage is derived from familiarity. That element is greatly devalued when home teams are playing in a new stadium as Arsenal did last season at the Emirates Stadium. Judging the ‘bedding in’ period is an important judgement to make.

Further areas to consider would include:
Weather
Managerial Uncertainty

Analysing HFA in conjunction with lateral thinking can give bettors an edge, but only in conjunction with low commission betting, at sportsbooks such as PinnacleSports.com.

Why is a Bookmaker telling me this?

PinnacleSports.com’s philosophy is that if we can improve the sophistication of players everywhere, more bettors will recognize the benefit of our unique pricing model, which offers up to 60% better odds. PinnacleSports.com benefits from educating its players, as it is sharp bettors who firm up our early prices on all markets offered, that allows us to provide the highest limits and most competitive odds around.

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Hobbes

Risk is part of everyday life, more so than most people probably realize. From crossing the road to the more obvious financial decisions such as buying a house, or starting a business, all involve varying amounts of uncertainty which must be considered. Gambling is the purest expression of risk, yet even when presented with a seemingly simple choice of potential outcomes for an unknown event, such as a football match, many bettors display a worrying ignorance of the concept of value and the fundamental mathematical principals involved. In simple terms, if a bettor cannot recognize ‘value’ they will never be a long term winner.

The Monty Hall Problem

Take a look at this seemingly simple mathematical puzzle, known as the Monty Hall paradox (named after the host of “Let’s Make a Deal”, a popular US show in the 60’s & 70’s which formed the basis of the poser).

An unbiased game-show host has placed a car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors. You have no prior knowledge that allows you to distinguish among the doors. "First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I’ll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I’ve shown you the goat, you make your final choice whether to stick with your initial choice of doors, or to switch to the remaining door. You win whatever is behind the door." You begin by pointing to door number 1. The host shows you that door number 3 has a goat.

Do you gain value and see your chances of winning the car increase by switching to Door 2 or do you stay with Door 1 as it has an equal chance with only two doors left to choose from? When this question was posed in Parade magazine, 10,000 readers complained that the published answer was wrong – including several maths professors.

The assumption of "equal probability", while being intuitively seductive, is wrong. The simple answer is to always switch doors. The car is behind one of the two closed doors, but you have no way of knowing which. Most contestants intuitively see no advantage in switching and assume that now there are only two doors, each must have an equal probability of revealing a car. In fact, your chances of winning the car actually double by switching to the door the host offers. If you switch, you gain value as theoretically you now have a 2/3 chance of winning the car. If you stayed with your original selection you have just a 1/3 chance of winning.

The principle is underlined by increasing the number of doors to 100. If 99 doors have a goat behind them and only one has a prize, if the player picks a door and then the host opens 98 of the other doors that were all shown to contain goats and then gives the player the opportunity to switch, the intelligent player would switch. The reason being that on average, in 99 out of 100 times the other door will contain the prize, as 99 out of 100 times the player first picked a door with a goat.

The Hole-In-One Gang

An excellent example of how this concept applies to betting was demonstrated by two sharp punters - Paul Simmons and John Carter – the self-styled Hole-In-One-Gang. In the summer of 1991, after studying the form, they calculated the chances of any given golfer in a tournament hitting a hole-in-one at around 50%. So they toured the UK placing maximum bets on the chances of a hole-in-one being scored by any player at a major that year. Lazy bookmakers who didn’t take the time to study the statistical likelihood put a finger in the air, and quoted amazing odds with 100-1 not uncommon.

That year, there were hole-in-one’s scored at 3 of the 4 majors and the pair’s winnings were reputed to be around £1million. Although it is difficult to put exact odds on a hole-in-one, it is clear that it is nowhere near 100/1. Due to the tradition of buying everyone in the clubhouse a drink after a successful hole-in-one, you can now buy insurance against it happening. Most insurers would probably refer to Francis Scheid’s (retired chairman of Boston University Maths Dept) 2000 study for Golf Digest. The magazine has kept hole-in-one stats since the 1950’s and Scheid put the odds of a Tour player scoring a hole-in-one at 3,000-1.

You can make a rough calculation for an average event like this week’s Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles.

4 (short holes)*156 (players before cut)*2(rounds) PLUS 4*70 (players after the cut) * 2
= (1,248+560) 1,808 attempts against an average frequency of 1 in 3,000.

Probability Yes:
1,808/3,000=0.6026 or a 60% chance of occurring with true odds of 1.66

Probability No:
1,192/3,000=0.3973 or a 39% chance of occurring with true odds of 2.52

The hole-in-one gang were getting exceptional value on their bets playing at odds of 100/1 when in reality the chance of a hole-in-one occurring using Scheid’s figures was no more than a 2/3 (1.666) shot at true odds.

Such notions are all too common mistakes in gambling when bettors and bookmakers frequently act against their best interests. It doesn’t matter if it’s a game show, playing the lottery or sports betting, understanding and finding value is the key to profit. Like the Monty Hall question, successful betting requires the skill to understand whether the odds offered on an event represent the statistical probability of that event occurring – if it doesn’t then you will have an edge and gain value.

For a full explanation of the Monty Hall problem or suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

Keep up to date with all the betting strategy and sports analysis articles From PinnacleSports.com with our RSS feed

Why is a Bookmaker telling me this?

PinnacleSports.com’s philosophy is that if we can improve the sophistication of players everywhere, more bettors will recognize the benefit of our unique pricing model, which offers up to 60% better odds. PinnacleSports.com benefits from educating its players, as it is sharp bettors who firm up our early prices on all markets offered, that allows us to provide the highest limits and most competitive odds around.

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Hobbes

As a general rule there are two groups of gamblers betting on sports – those who hope to profit, and those who expect to profit. The vast majority of gamblers belong to the first group, and always will, because their actions contradict their intentions. There is no simple secret to attaining long-term profitability in sports betting. All professional players serve a long apprenticeship, but if you aspire to join this elite group, there are some myths that need to be exploded, and some basic concepts that you need to come to grips with, in order to make the transition from ‘casual’ to ‘professional’.

Evolving from Casual to Professional

At PinnacleSports.com we categorise a professional player (or ‘sharp’) as one who we expect to win over the long-term. How can we tell if any given player will be a consistent winner going forward? The most accurate way is to compare the odds a player received when they placed a bet with the closing price for that particular market.

If a player consistently beats our closing price at PinnacleSports.com, they are likely to be a long-term winner. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more indicative of a player’s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.

For example, our closing Asian Handicap price on Manchester Utd. versus Man City in the recent Derby was (-1/2) 1.909, so if a customer played (-1/2) 1.962 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet, regardless of whether the bet won or lost. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp, and likely to register substantial profits in the long run if applying the same approach.

What’s the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? Simple - one who plays at a ‘bad’ price. If other online bookmakers offered a closing price on Man City at (+1/2) 1.869 and a player bet that price, instead of taking the superior odds of (+1/2) 2.02 available at PinnacleSports.com, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.

Line Shopping

You can use this information to your advantage by adopting the process known as "line” or comparison shopping. Not only is it second nature to sharp players, but it is one of the easiest ways for any player to increase their potential winnings by always playing at the best available price. This is achieved by actively seeking best prices through odds comparison sites, and having accounts at multiple online sports books so that you no longer remain a captive to the high margins of traditional bookmakers. Ideally you should hold a portfolio of accounts including a betting exchange, one or two reduced commission bookmakers such as PinnacleSports.com together with a couple of traditional books, where you’ll find inflated favourite prices and most likely attractive odds on the underdog.

The objective when comparison shopping is to shrink the margins on both sides of any given event by as much as possible. This will allow you to be in the ideal position to lay 1.962 on the favourite at one bookie and take back better than even money at another book, guaranteeing a profit no matter which team or player wins.

One word of caution when including a betting exchange when line shopping - always remember to compare the price AFTER commission has been deducted. A price offered may look appealing at first, but if 5% commission is deducted it may not be as attractive as you first thought. It’s always worth remembering that unlike an exchange, PinnacleSports.com never charges commission on winning bets.

The Pinnacle Challenge

Still not convinced about comparative shopping? If you don’t have an account yet at Pinnacle Sports, try taking the "Pinnacle Challenge". Whenever you place a bet, check the odds on that wager at www.PinnacleSports.com compared to the price you played at. PinnacleSport.com’s Multi-Way Calculator will tell you the exact difference in market percentage which is the edge the bookmaker or exchange holds over you. Don’t be surprised at how much money you may be missing out on by not having an account at PinnacleSports.com!

Why is a Bookmaker telling me this?

PinnacleSports.com’s philosophy is that if we can improve the sophistication of players everywhere, more bettors will recognize the benefit of our unique pricing model, which offers up to 60% better odds. PinnacleSports.com benefits from educating its players, as it is sharp bettors who firm up our early prices on all markets offered, that allows us to provide the highest limits and most competitive odds around.

Feedback and suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.

The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

The great advantage of betting on the first five innings in baseball, otherwise known as the first half, is that your fate is in the hands of the two starting pitchers. You can safely ignore both benches and both bullpens which puts any handicapper in a much stronger position as it is mostly random which bench players are used and which pitchers come in from the pen to face particular hitters. This helps in two ways:

Magnify Your Edge
First, if you have the advantage in the first five innings you can have a larger advantage than you would have in the entire game, because the situation in which you have that edge is magnified. If the line is in error, chances are that those later innings are minimizing that error, assuming the error does not originate from the bullpen.

The second half also introduces random elements out of your control that can cost you the win. Close games and blowouts have different dynamics late in the game. Wind conditions can change, there are substitutions and double switches. Early in the game, you can look at a known lineup against a known opponent and not worry about the rest of the game causing interference with the result of your bet.

This is also true in other sports. If you know that a team is likely to dominate the early going, especially the opening five in basketball or the early game plan in football, you can often get a far larger advantage by betting on the first half or first quarter of the game before things get randomized and teams adjust.

Target Secondary Betting Markets for Maximum Advantage
The second advantage is the benefit that always comes when you target a secondary betting market rather than a principal game line. As with alternate runlines and team totals, you get to focus on the first half line and study it. In fact, you are probably giving far more thought to the line you’re thinking about betting than the sports book does when putting the line up. The sportsbook will be applying a formula and hoping it is close enough, but they can’t afford to deal an abnormal line until someone bets.

This lets you find opportunities where the first half line does not follow the moneyline or total for the game the way it normally should. Unlike runlines, there can be little question such differences exist. The big unknown is which ones are important and how much each of them is worth.

Starting Pitching vs. Bullpens
The biggest factor is the starting pitcher versus the bullpens. If you have a strong bullpen, that helps you only in the second half, whereas a strong starter is mostly good for the first half. When you see a particularly strong pitcher starting with a poor bullpen or vice versa, that’s a great time to look at betting the first half. Knowing how to properly compensate for this could allow a disciplined bettor to benefit in both directions. He could bet into seemingly fair lines when he has the advantage, and could safely take value when the lines have moved too far.

Of course, to do any of this you need a guide for what first half lines are supposed to be when betting baseball. Having five innings instead of nine reduces the edge of the better team. In exchange for that, they get the benefits of their usually stronger starter and the small mathematical edge that comes from ties. The net result is that favorites for the game tend to be slightly smaller favorites for the first five innings. This effect remains small until about -150 (1.67) and gets sizable by -200 (1.50). It does not seem to matter whether the home or road team is the favorite.

Totals for the first half are trickier because in baseball, numbers are created anything but equal. The fact that 7 and 7½ are almost as different as 7½ and 8½ makes it hard to give an accurate rule of thumb to translate a game total into a first half total.

The later innings of the game tend to be lower scoring on average than the first five, and there are only four of them (plus extra innings), so more than half the runs will likely come from the first five innings. The result of this is that the first half total will be slightly more than half of the total for the game, once all numbers are adjusted to smooth out all irregularities.

Get Good Numbers Quickly
As with all conversions, the best way to get good numbers quickly is to write down the betting lines PinnacleSports.com or any other book offer on a variety of baseball games. You can then use these historical lines as a guide to future games. You can even use this technique to learn about the market’s perception of a particular team. For example, by analysing the first half lines traded at PinnacleSports.com over two days, you can quickly gain an amazingly accurate ranking of the respective bullpens in MLB.

As usual, the usefulness of a line comes down to how well you understand it and what a good number would be; whether it lets you bet on what you like and against what you dislike, what the limit is and how thin it is being dealt (where thin means lower juice/commission).

Always Play at Best Price
As with many other betting lines, PinnacleSports.com will often have the best odds on both sides of the equation. With lines worth up to 50% better value than other sportsbooks, PinnacleSports.com deals both first half sides and totals at -105 (bet $105 to win $100) instead of the usual -110 (bet $110 to win $100) available at other sportsbooks.

Most bettors have learnt that betting the main game line is the way to obtain the best odds. While this is true at a traditional ‘full juice’ sportsbook, at a low commission bookmaker like PinnacleSports.com, whatever you are looking to bet, the chances are that you can find a good number. In addition to overnight lines, players at PinnacleSports.com now have a moneyline, a total, two runlines, two team totals and a first half moneyline and total to choose from, all at low juice.

In fact, you can do even better by line shopping at other sports books when PinnacleSports.com puts up a unique number and our other lines reflect that. Maximizing your use of all the resources available to find the best odds will pay dividends every bet you make. As long as you’re playing for no more than a few dimes and choose the line you bet carefully, it is one of the easiest ways that any player can increase their potential winnings substantially, by simply playing at the best available price.

–Locke

Feedback and suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

The Inside Line from the Pinnacle Sports book by Hobbes

As the new Premiership takes shape, football bettors might benefit from reassessing their approach to gambling on the English top flight. In recent seasons Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd (more commonly known as ‘the big four’) have widened the gap between themselves and the rest of the league as their financial strength has allowed them to consolidate their power, particularly at home.

Chelsea, in their last home game against Everton, equalled Liverpool’s record of 63 consecutive unbeaten home games. While in the 2003/04 season, Arsenal achieved the Holy Grail of going an entire season unbeaten.

In the past two campaigns Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal have between them lost just eight home games, mostly to each other. What that often means for fans of a traditional 1,X,2 Saturday accumulator, is the hugely unappetising prospect of backing a multiple of the four big-guns at home to lesser opposition for combined odds of something around even-money. A similar scenario applies to Celtic in Scotland, who have a stranglehold on the SPL, and across the continent where last season for example, Inter Milan broke the European record for consecutive home wins (17).

The natural antidote for the increasingly prevalence of one-sided football contests is Asian Handicapping. Asian Handicaps level the playing field via a hypothetical goal bias, giving bettors the opportunity of backing Chelsea at better than even money at home to newly promoted Derby for example.

Asian Handicaps Explained
The Internet’s largest online bookmaker, PinnacleSports.com, is a market leader in Asian Handicap betting with 1.96/1.96 style pricing. An Asian Handicap is a method of betting on soccer that eliminates the possibility of losing if a game ends in a draw after 90 minutes. Teams are ‘handicapped’ to offset any perceived difference in abilities, using a spread based on goal superiority which eliminates the tie. There are three basic types of Asian Handicaps:

Level Handicap
Where there is no perceived difference in abilities between Team A and Team B, no handicap bias is assigned, and both start off (0) also known as pk, pick’em or scratch. To win a bet on either team, all the bettor must do is identify the team which scores more goals than their opponent; all bets are refunded on the tie.

Single Handicap
Where there is a perceived difference in abilities between Team A and Team B, the superior team will be given an appropriate goal handicap to level the playing field for betting purposes i.e. -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc.

For example, if you bet on Team A with a handicap of -1 goal, they must win by more than one goal to cover their handicap and for you to win your bet. If they only win by a goal, the result with the handicap applied is a draw for betting purposes, so your bet is refunded. If Team B draw or win, you will lose your bet on Team A.

Double or Split Handicap
Where the difference in two teams’ abilities is slight, split ball Asian Handicaps may be used splitting the stake into two separate bets. For example Team A might be offered (pk & -0.5). If you bet on Team A and they lose, you will lose both bets as they did not cover either handicap. If the match ends in a draw, half of your stake at (pk) will be refunded, and the other half at (-0.5) will lose. If Team A wins, both handicaps will be covered so both bets win.

If you’re stuck in the past slavishly following three-way fixed odds betting, the chances are you’re not getting a decent return on your outlay, and your gambling might benefit from the fresh perspective that Asian Handicapping provides.

–Hobbes

Normally when you handicap a game in any sport, you have to evaluate an individual team’s offensive and defensive capabilities. The performance of one during a game, will usually influence the other, such as when and where the offense will receive the ball, and under what circumstances. Baseball is different as regardless of how well the offense or defense are performing, each team receives twenty-seven outs to score as many runs as they can, and a further twenty seven outs to limit the opposing team to as few runs as possible.

This provides bettors with the opportunity to focus on the element of the game where their opinion is strongest and profit where this view differs from that of the market. The way to do this is to bet on Team Totals.

Team Totals let you bet on the number of runs one team will score in contrast to other lines that depend on the scores for both teams combined. When you bet Over 4.5 runs for the Yankees, you win if they score five or more runs. Unlike betting a moneyline, runline or total, how many runs New York’s pitching allows is irrelevant, allowing you to focus on just their offense and the opposing defense. While there is the issue of whether the home team will bat in the bottom of the ninth and the risk of extra innings, these are relatively minor issues that have far less impact on your chances than the overall performance of the team’s defense during the game.

Don’t Forget the Juice
The problem with Team Totals is the same problem that all proposition bets have, the ‘juice’ or commission charged on them is higher than on the main betting lines. Most books will charge -115 (wager $115 to win $100) to bet Team Totals, whereas Pinnacle Sports prices Team Totals at -108 (wager $108 to win $100). Although this is a significant saving, there is generally not enough action for books to deal the line as sharp as they would a total or a runline, and even the Pinnacle Sports book only offers them for $2,000 per bet.

The key here is that Team Totals are closer to a main betting line than they are to a proposition bet, but they are not a true main line. When you have to pay -115 (1.87) it makes it tough to win, but it can still be done. The key is to make sure you’re getting a good number, and you have two weapons on your side:

1. You’re giving this line a lot more attention than the book probably is

2. Many books and players don’t understand what team totals are worth

Common Mistake In Calculating Team Totals
The instinctual answer for Team Totals is that they should add up to the total for the game, but this answer is incorrect. If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, you could safely bet the game to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That’s the way runs are distributed. It’s possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it’s impossible to score less than 0.

OVER or UNDER??
If the two numbers add up to the total or higher, it’s safe to pay scary looking juice to go under the Team Totals. If they add up to a half run less than the total, it’s usually all right to go under as long as the combined juice is small. If you actively like the under that makes these plays that much easier, and with experience you can learn to spot which line is in error. Going Over is harder, and there are many books where it is effectively impossible to beat the Over because

1. recreational players or ‘squares’ tend to go over not realizing that the numbers don’t add up the natural way

2. squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they’d like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.

Pinnacle Sports has much sharper players and far lower juice, making it far more common for an over on a Team Total to have value. Once again, a safe and effective way to know what Team Totals should look like is the same method recommended for runlines; Look at the Team Totals in other games and they should look similar in this one. This may sound like extra work, but you are teaching yourself to recognize value in the process and can hone in on areas where the Pinny Lean deviates from the market number, which presents another opportunity to make money.

Soft Lines
Team Totals like Runlines fluctuate in relation to the Moneyline and Total, but unlike Runlines many books do not link them as carefully and might even trade them completely independently. Therefore, if there is a large ‘steam’ move on a main betting line

1. Check whether the Team Totals have been updated.

2. If you’ve never checked that particular Team Total at your sports book, compare it to the odds at Pinnacle Sports or against your own chart or similar games.

3. The success rate on this is larger than you might expect, and sometimes you can even find a line that has gone in the opposite direction to the main lines.

4. If someone bets the mathematically incorrect side of a Team Total, especially if this happens twice, the chances are that this will move the line and cause it to offer value. Even at PinnacleSports.com we can’t be sure that we have the best of it, especially when the person betting is sharp, so often we have to move the line and offer what we think is likely to be value.

While the under is more likely to offer you value on a game where you don’t particularly like your side - especially if you’re playing at another bookmaker than PinnacleSports.com - the over is where you can have vastly the best of it in the right spot. It’s never a sure thing that a pitcher will get it done. Every now and then, it’s “Lima Time”.

Sometimes a pitcher is hurt or just plain can’t cut it in the majors. In those spots, the over on the other Team Total can be a monster favorite, much more than the over or the other team. The extra juice is a good reason to be cautious, but Team Totals are an excellent way to both find value, and to bet on exactly what you like, and nothing you don’t.

–Locke

Feedback and suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.

The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

Ah, the start of the new season! Optimism reigns supreme, with everything to play for. This weekend sees the start of the German Bundesliga and the English Premier League, and although there has been little movement in the Premiership futures market, the ‘Bayern to Win’ line got hammered down to 1.54 by mostly public money before it received any resistance. Looking at specific games for this weekend, here are the hot ones according to the players:

English Premier League

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
This game opened at -1/4 for Liverpool back in June, but it wasn’t until this week that the handicap finally switched to 1/2 a goal. This means there was probably a lot of value in the early lines (and also that punters now approve of Benitez’s £40m summer shopping spree). Since the move to a half, we’ve seen mostly two-sided action with many of our larger Asian punters backing Villa, which pushed the Reds’ side of this line up to 2.09 at one point. The Asian handicap is now -½ 2.05 on Liverpool, though you have to balance the Scousers’ clearly superior squad against the fact that Martin O’Neill’s men lost just 4 games at home last season, and the Pool scored fewer away goals than Fulham and Wigan (18).

Arsenal vs. Fulham
The Gunners’ line opened at -1½ 2.04 at home, but bettors took that number and ran through any resistance in July, finally prompting the move to -1¼. That said, the new handicap sparked a ton of Arsenal action which has continued throughout the week. By midweek, the Gunners were at 1.90 and it will be interesting to see where the line settles by kick-off on Sunday.

Totals trading on this game has been almost exclusively on the over.

Manchester United vs. Reading
United opened this game at -1½ 1.88, which sparked some early Reading action. Then late July, witnessed heavy trading on United with maximum limit bets pushing the line all the way down to 1.72. It has settled back slightly to 1.77, but with a 2:1 bet count as well as continued sharp action on Man U, we would expect the price to keep dropping, even though in four meetings last season United failed to cover the -1½ handicap.

Bundesliga

VFL Wolfsburg vs. Arminia Bielefeld
Strangely, the Bundesliga game with the most volume this week is the one between relegation candidates Wolfsburg and Arminia Bielefeld. The line started at -½ flat for home side Wolfsburg, and despite considerable two-way action, Bielefeld’s line has deteriorated by weight of money alone. We’re still waiting for any real sharp action to show on the game, so the odds likely won’t settle until later in the week.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hertha Berlin
Much like the Wolfsburg game, this encounter between two of last year’s bottom-half-of-the-table teams has also attracted early volume. The line started out as 0 “pick’em” and was heavily skewed in Frankfurt’s favour. The price has jumped around a little, but with action on both sides from all over the world, the line offered now seems to be market correct. If you see heavily skewed action at another bookmaker without a market correction from the rest of the world, figure one side likely has considerable value.

–Hobbes

Baseball Sharp Plays

OVER on Boston Red Sox games:

The lines for Red Sox games have been bet over by our sharps continuously for a long time now. At one point it got so heavy that we would artificially raise the line earlier in the day, assuming the bets were coming even though the action we respect tends to come later on. It doesn’t happen every day, and it’s more likely to happen at Fenway than it is elsewhere, but it seems hard to go wrong with these bets.

UNDER and AGAINST the New York Yankees games:

This is the big one, especially the betting against the Yankees. For the entire year, the Yankees have been treated as the best team in the game even when they looked like nothing of the kind. Now that they are performing, the public enthusiasm has reached epic proportions. Yankee games are consistently the highest action game of the day, and the public money almost never goes against them. That’s why the sharps almost always oppose, betting into what are almost certainly inflated numbers. If you shop around and use the best available metrics, this is the greatest opportunity in MLB this season. The under is a far less extreme case, but it comes from the same public exuberance surrounding the Yankees’ lineup.

–Locke

Click next to read Pinnacle Pulse 73 (Part II) - Baseball Betting Strategy - Team Totals

Feedback and suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.

The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!

While the last issue of the Pinnacle Pulse introduced the basics of runline betting strategies in Major League Baseball, this week we will focus on tactical considerations when betting baseball, and the potential benefit of Alternate Runlines at PinnacleSports.com.

Most books consider Alternate Runlines a proposition bet rather than a true line on the game. This means they will charge even more juice than they would charge on a normal line. They also charge a lot more for lines that have large favorites.

When you can bet on Johan Santana and the Twins +1.5 -500 or against him at -1.5 +350, it’s doubtful if either side has any value. In contrast, PinnacleSports.com’s Alternate line is far more competitive, typically offering the best odds on both sides. Using the Santana example, it might typically equate to +1.5 -440 / -1.5 +400. This can make the crucial difference between profit and loss, but bettors still need to find the right side of the Alternate Runline to bet.

Choosing the Correct Side
Using PinnacleSports.com’s unique low commission pricing model, Alternate Runlines will frequently offer more value than either the moneyline or the normal runline price. Since it is very hard to handicap the difference between -440 and -400, even our more mathematical players will often disagree on which side has value. In addition, Alternate Runlines can allow you to get a strong number – sometimes even for a game where you don’t like either team – as they are often based on an earlier price for the moneyline and total. PinnacleSports.com deal the alternate runline for $3,000, so most players can place their normal wager size using one bet on this line alone.

Choosing between Moneylines, Runlines, and Alternate Runlines
With three viable betting options, which one should you choose to bet on a team you like? Firstly, it is vital to get a sense of what the relative prices should be by looking at a variety of lines to help build up a chart of prices you consider fair. Once you like a team, you can look at the chart to see if either line is cheaper than expected. If one of them is, it allows you to get a better number than the moneyline. It is scary how powerful this can be when combined with line shopping.

There are sharps that specialize in picking off soft runline numbers that arbitrage players can’t touch. Sometimes they hedge these bets with moneyline wagers, but the sharpest players ride their bets out, rather than pay the unnecessary juice of the second hedging bet.

Steam Chasing
Runlines also offer a prime opportunity for steam chasing. Sportsbooks that are slow adjusting their moneylines when there are significant moves - presenting real value or scalping opportunities - are even slower adjusting runlines. Most of the time the higher juice they charge allows them to get away with it, but bettors can catch books ‘leaning’. They are dealing a number designed to get the action they want from their own players, so when they offer a number inside the “Pinnacle range” a power move on the game can lead to good value or even a scalp before they realize what is going on.

This tactic can also operate in reverse, and you can take the value books like PinnacleSports.com offer when a game has an abnormal betting pattern. Sometimes a bettor or syndicate will bet the runline or moneyline but not both. This will lead to numbers between the moneyline and the run line that no longer agree with one another. Close to game time, books targeting recreational players will often be forced to overcharge for the public side so much to balance their books, that they unwittingly create scalping opportunities for astute players at PinnacleSports.com. These unique numbers will pop up surprisingly often, but will disappear very quickly if you are slow to react.

The ‘Forced Bet’ Scenario
These fluctuations in odds can even lead to what some sharps consider a ‘forced bet’ situation. For example, if a road team is available at +121 and the home team -119, you would doubtless bet, even if you could not bet on both sides. The juice now works in your favor and you get the team that you like. The choice of team could even be decided by a coin flip, the only question is how much of your bankroll you want to risk?

When a runline creates the equivalent situation, you now have the advantage normally given to the book. If you bet both sides, you could bet on the middle or against it, pocketing some value, or you could choose the side you like more. It costs time and effort to be sharp enough to notice these situations and watch for them, but once you’ve made that investment, it’s vital that you capitalize on it.

When the lines are roughly equal, the best way to choose the right line to play is to consider your own game model. Why do you like this team? If they have strong pitching and defense or they have a poor offense, then that points to a low total, so you should look to take the +1.5 and lay the juice if necessary. If you think the opposite, that the team has a strong offense or weak pitching and defense, then that points to a higher total. Look to lay -1.5 and take the favourable odds.

Pay Attention to Variance
Variance is also an important factor as most blowouts result from the breakdown of a pitcher or one who pitches a gem. Unpredictable quantities like Carlos Zambrano or unknown call-ups from the minors are strong candidates for laying -1.5 on either team. These are clearly strong reasons to prefer one line to another. Issues of bullpen strength, or whether teams “know how to win close games” or hit in the clutch can also be considered, but some of the smartest people in the game tend to consider these to be mostly mythical concerns. In short, don’t get excited by a team’s record in one run games. This is not a predictive statistic.

No Shame in Losing on a Long Shot
One objection bettors frequently have to runlines is that they don’t like long odds. Laying -500 doesn’t make you feel that good when you win, whereas losing feels terrible. Winning a +500 feels great, but most of the time you lose even when you got value – and if your team wins by 1 and you still lose, then you feel like an idiot. As with all betting, you need to balance these considerations against getting the best value. Some bettors like to think of a long shot as a parlay, betting both that it won’t be a one run game and that your team will win. Others have simply made their peace with it, accepting that there is no shame in losing such a bet.

Bet Size & Record Keeping
Playing at different odds also makes bet sizing and performance tracking more difficult. For record keeping, make sure to compare to a break-even point rather than to 50%, 51.1% or 52.2%. Many sharps betting baseball lose far more bets than they win and come out ahead. In terms of bet sizing, the mathematically correct strategy is to think in terms of the amount you’re trying to win to determine your bet size, rather than the amount risked, or the base amount of the wager. However, it is always good to remember that the mathematical answer might not always be right for you.

Of course, there are sometimes even stronger ways to pinpoint what you’re wagering on, and the next two weeks we’ll cover those. However, if after reading all of this, you are still uncomfortable betting runlines, there is no shame in sticking with the moneyline by playing at a low juice sportsbook like PinnacleSports.com and enjoying the simple pleasure of rooting for a team to win.

Feedback and suggestions for future topics can be sent to: pinnaclepulse@pinnaclesports.com

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming. With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.

The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!