Champions League Betting Analysis from PinnacleSports.com
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Britain may be the laughing stock at the Eurovision song contest, but the joke is on the rest of continent in this season’s Champions League. With Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea all through to the last four of the competition, the Premiership’s domination of the competition is the defining issue of the forthcoming semi-finals. Only AC Milan stand in the way of the first ever all-Premiership final, with leading online bookmaker, www.PinnacleSports.com, rating the Rossoneri as the 4/1 outsiders to win the Champions League in their outright market which is priced to an unbeatable 108%.
How Can United Top the Magnificent Seven?
Manchester United’s demolition of Roma at the Theatre of Dreams was a godsend for headline writers, but that exceptional result doesn’t guarantee that the Red Devils will reach seventh heaven in Athens. A simple line of form would suggest that if United can batter Serie A’s second best side, then AC Milan should fall victim in the same way. Discounting Milan’s 8-point deduction as a result of the Calciopoli affair, the club would still be adrift of the Roma side that were so dramatically humbled at the Theatre of Dreams. Although leading Internet sports book PinnacleSports.com make United the 11/5 second favourites to win the Champions League, they don’t envisage lightning striking twice and have set the total goals scored for the first leg at over/under 2 goals. The Rossoneri have reached the final twice in the last four campaigns, and will be out to not only defend the pride of Italian football, but restore the club’s own reputation and are 7/5 to advance to the final at www.PinnacleSports.com.
Fortunate that the match-fixing scandal didn’t exclude them from the competition, Milan struggled in the first half of their domestic season losing three successive home games for the first time in 40 years. They were widely regarded as the least convincing Champions League group winner, underlined by the 2-0 defeat Lille inflicted at the San Siro. Their form has however, improved considerably since the winter break, and they are now favourites for at least fourth spot in the Scudetto.
Milan coach, Carlo Ancellotti, is one of an elite group of five men to have won the European crown as both player and manager. He will have good memories of Old Trafford, given that Milan won an all-Italian final on penalties at the venue in 2003. The decisive spot-kick was scored by Andriy Shevchenko, the club’s second all-time goal-scorer, but the Ukrainian’s departure has left a vacuum that the club have struggled to fill.
Shevchenko’s mantle has passed to Brazilian midfielder Kaka, who though effective from much deeper, carries the side’s main goal threat and leads the golden boot stakes with seven goals. Ancellotti seemed to have taken a big gamble by signing Ronaldo from Real Madrid, but the Brazilian has given the side another attacking dimension. He is however ineligible in the Champions League, leaving Milan looking lightweight up front, where 33 year old Inzaghi is a potential weak link.
In reaction to this issue, Ancellotti moved Clarence Seedorf into the trequartista position – just behind the strikers – against Bayern. This proved a success as the Dutchman scored and assisted in the 2-1 win which was the first European tie the Germans have lost at the Allianz Arena. Depth of experience is crucial to Milan’s strength. The side is brimming with Champions League and World Cup winners, but with a combined age of 69, the centre-back pairing of Alessandro Nesta and Paolo Maldini must be reaching its sell-by date. Given that United are spearheaded by Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo - who weren’t even born when Maldini debuted for Milan - the game could be billed as youth versus experience.
This season Cristiano Ronaldo has delivered on the huge potential shown after his arrival at Old Trafford in 2003. Recent performances have led him to be considered as one of the world’s best players, and he gave the club a huge boost by recently signing a new five year contract. The relationship Ronaldo has developed with Rooney has verged on telepathic, with the pair integral to United’s pace and penetration, which will be critical to United’s prospects against a typically cautious Italian outfit.
United have three survivors from their sole success in 1999, the year which they also landed the three trophies they are again chasing this season. Of those remnants, Gary Neville could be absent through injury, one aspect of a defensive headache for Alex Ferguson. Serbian centre-back, Nemanja Vidic, has been superb this season but has a broken collarbone, while a persistent injury to Mikael Silvestre reduces the options even further. Between the posts Edwin Van der Sar has regained fitness but his recent performances have been dubious; across two tight games, one mistake could be crucial and the Dutchman’s dodgy form should be borne in mind by punters.
A further crucial point in favour of the Italians is that the first leg is played in Manchester, where given the result against Roma, they will be organised to avoid a similar onslaught. Ancellotti led Milan to a 1-0 victory at Old Trafford in the last sixteen of the 2005 Champions League tournament, repeating the score at the San Siro, so he will have a good idea of the task in hand.
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