Grand National Betting Analysis from PinnacleSports.com
Jonh Smith’s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Odds - 4.15 Aintree, April 14
The world’s greatest steeple chase takes place this weekend over Aintree’s famous fences. The first official Grand National was run in 1839, and since that time its popularity has grown to make it one of the most popular events in the British sports calendar. On Saturday the nation will be glued to the television for the 10 minutes it takes to complete the 4m 4f course over 30 towering fences. Given the unique challenges this race presents, punters need all the help they can get, and www.PinnacleSports.com will be offering unbeatable margins on head-to-heads and the outright market.
Most housewives will be getting their pin out on Saturday morning to make their selection for the Grand National, and with so many factors to take into consideration, more seasoned gamblers could be forgiven for following suit. However, despite being such an unpredictable race there are some very solid trends that provide a better alternative.
Narrowing Down the Field
Weight is always a critical factor to consider when analysing handicapped horse races but given the extreme test of jumping and stamina the National presents, it assumes critical significance. Only five winners since the war have carried 11st 5lb (including Red Rum twice), so it will pay to concentrate on those horses weighted below that crucial figure. In 2006 only one of the nine horses that completed the course carried more than 11 stone, and all were aged between 9-12. Age provides another reliable way of thinning down the field. Punters are advised to only concentrate on runners within the 8-12yo bracket, as in the last 66 years no horse younger than eight has won the race, while you have to go back 83 years for a winner aged over 12.
It is probably stating the obvious but given the extreme length of the race at four and a half miles, any Grand National contender must have proven stamina over at least 3 miles, and be a reliable jumper, as no other steeple chase presents more challenging obstacles. Given the age constraints already outlined this will logically point toward a class horse which has already proved its worth in a valuable chase, which is another point to look out for.
With over £400,000 on offer to the winner, it is no surprise that some trainers spend all year targeting horses at this one race. Those entrants campaigned with this race in mind, will stand a better chance, and will probably have avoided the rigours of Cheltenham, which was only 4 ½ weeks previous.
Along with those issues already outlined, any gambler looking to have a bet on the National should take into consideration the usual considerations for any run-of-the-mill race. This includes questioning whether the horse goes on the ground (forecasted as Good), and if the stable is hot or not.
Last but not least, once you have reduced the 40 horse field to just a few names, don’t undo all the good work by losing out on any potential returns. Place your bet with a low commission SportsBook like PinnacleSports.com, who offer head-to-head markets at up to 60% better odds than the competition and whose margins for the outright market will be substantially lower than traditional bookmakers.
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