Premiership Betting Analysis from PinnacleSports.com
60% Better Premiership Football Betting Odds - Season Ends May 13th
Relegation Battle Likely to Go Right to the Wire
In football as in life, everything that goes-around, usually comes-around. On the final day of the Premiership season, West Ham travel to Old Trafford for a game that could conceivably be decisive in both the title and relegation battles. For Manchester United fans it could also serve as payback for the painful memory of the final fixture in the 1994/95 season. The Red Devils were denied a historic third straight Premiership title following a 1-1 draw at Upton Park, by what a pig-sick Alex Ferguson called, “An obscene amount of effort”.
West Ham Signings Expensive Throw of the Dice
The Hammers will probably need an equally obscene amount of effort in order to avoid relegation this term. Their final seven games feature Everton, Bolton and Chelsea all at home, as well as a visit to the Emirates Stadium on April 7th, so the bubbles might have already burst before they visit the Theatre of Dreams on May 13th.
The Hammers have endured a turbulent season changing both manager and owner while suffering a negative backlash from the signing of Argentine duo, Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano, whose arrival coincided with the club’s worst run for 74 years. Alan Curbishley replaced Alan Pardew in mid-December and made a dream start defeating Man Utd at Upton Park but the necessity of a defensive overhaul was underlined by a 6-0 defeat at Reading on New Year’s Day.
Curbs has followed the example of Harry Redknapp last season, and splashed the cash, investing heavily in defenders Lucas Neill and Matthew Upson. This represents an expensive throw of the dice, the danger of which was demonstrated when both were injured on their debuts. West Ham’s problems cannot necessarily be solved by money alone. A lack of desire dubbed the ‘Baby Bentley’ mentality won’t necessarily be helped by parachuting in big earners, who will need to integrate quickly.
Wigan Suffering Backlash of Success
In contrast Wigan aren’t prepared to mortgage themselves against the potential rewards of Premiership survival. Manager Paul Jewel declined to sign any ‘big’ players, but at least he and Wigan’s supporters can draw some comfort from a relatively kind end-of-season run-in. Wigan’s survival battle is however handicapped by consistently being the worst supported club in the Premiership despite slashing ticket prices. "We need the fans to be our 12th man," said Jewell. "I hope the supporters will join us for the battle."
After a first season in the Premiership when Wigan shocked everyone by finishing 10th and reaching the Carling Cup final, the Lancashire club has become a victim of their own success. Many of those players crucial to last term’s achievements – particularly Pascal Chimbonda, Jimmy Bullard, and Jason Roberts - cashed in with lucrative transfer deals and with them went some of the heart that drove Wigan to success last term.
Charlton Must Avoid End-of-Season Wilt
In their seventh consecutive season in the Premiership, Charlton are in their greatest peril of relegation. It is no coincidence that Alan Curbishley, who took them into the top flight and kept them there with modest resources, left at the end of last season. His successor, Iain Dowie, struggled with the legacy lasting just three months in charge,
The responsibility of saving the club has now passed to Alan Pardew, available after being relieved of his duties at West Ham. His biggest challenge is breaking the club’s tendency to wilt badly towards the end of the season. In 2005/06 the Addicks took just five points from their last seven games; in 2004/05 just two points over the same stretch. That kind of form would be terminal this time around. Charlton have found goals hard to come-by, so the form of Darren Bent, who many had expected to leave in the January sales, is critical.
Writing Has Been on the Wall for Watford
The writing has been on the wall for Watford since defeat at Goodison Park in the opening game of their first Premiership season. The Hornets went ten games before finally recording a victory and have been favourites with www.PinnacleSports.com to finish bottom of the pile throughout. Despite some bad breaks, manager Aidy Boothroyd has remained philosophical. However, the sale of Ashley Young in January was probably the final nail in the coffin and an indication that the board were cashing in their chips and preparing for life in the Championship.
Watford’s revenue is 4% of United’s demonstrating the widening gap between the Premiership’s “haves” and “have nots” since it was reduced to 20 teams. 40 points was considered the survival watermark, but as the Premiership has become increasingly polarised by wealth, point distribution has changed. 35 points would have been enough to stay up in five of the last seven seasons, and should be regarded by punters in the relegation market as a benchmark for this term.
This year’s Premiership survival battle has special resonance with the new media and TV rights packages worth £2.7billion over three years. In real terms, survival is worth a minimum of £30million.
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